Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.004337 0.004564 0.004798 0.005055 0.005333 0.005622 0.005948
2024-12-29 0.003869 0.004200 0.004554 0.004963 0.005423 0.005929 0.006528
2025-01-05 0.003575 0.003960 0.004383 0.004887 0.005474 0.006140 0.006959
2025-01-12 0.003400 0.003828 0.004310 0.004898 0.005601 0.006424 0.007469
2025-01-19 0.003153 0.003594 0.004098 0.004725 0.005491 0.006408 0.007603
2025-01-26 0.003045 0.003512 0.004056 0.004745 0.005606 0.006659 0.008070
2025-02-02 0.003006 0.003509 0.004105 0.004873 0.005853 0.007083 0.008777
2025-02-09 0.002881 0.003393 0.004008 0.004813 0.005857 0.007191 0.009071
2025-02-16 0.002790 0.003315 0.003953 0.004800 0.005917 0.007370 0.009465
2025-02-23 0.002698 0.003231 0.003886 0.004766 0.005944 0.007504 0.009800
2025-03-02 0.002652 0.003202 0.003886 0.004818 0.006086 0.007798 0.010373
2025-03-09 0.002579 0.003135 0.003833 0.004797 0.006125 0.007948 0.010745
2025-03-16 0.002498 0.003057 0.003767 0.004756 0.006139 0.008067 0.011086
2025-03-23 0.002404 0.002959 0.003670 0.004670 0.006085 0.008087 0.011276
2025-03-30 0.002323 0.002875 0.003588 0.004601 0.006051 0.008130 0.011503
2025-04-06 0.002276 0.002836 0.003564 0.004611 0.006129 0.008341 0.012006
2025-04-13 0.002170 0.002713 0.003424 0.004452 0.005954 0.008164 0.011868
2025-04-20 0.002134 0.002684 0.003410 0.004470 0.006040 0.008385 0.012397
2025-04-27 0.002135 0.002705 0.003464 0.004588 0.006278 0.008853 0.013370
2025-05-04 0.002077 0.002642 0.003401 0.004533 0.006251 0.008901 0.013624
2025-05-11 0.002036 0.002602 0.003368 0.004521 0.006289 0.009053 0.014070
2025-05-18 0.001991 0.002555 0.003324 0.004489 0.006295 0.009152 0.014427
2025-05-25 0.001973 0.002546 0.003333 0.004537 0.006427 0.009465 0.015196